Welcome to the American Ornithological Society 2018 Annual Conference. We are pleased to have you join us at the lovely Hilton El Conquistador Resort in Tucson, AZ.
The charismatic nature and enigmatic decline of the American Kestrel (Falco sparverius) has sparked interest and concern from citizen and professional scientists as well as the general public. Although several reasons have been proposed for the cause of the decline, there is little or no empirical evidence for the hypothesized threats and management options are unclear. We present recommendations for future research into the cause of decline for American Kestrels to inform priorities regarding monitoring, identifying drivers of survival and reproductive rates, and creating full-annual-cycle models. Breeding Bird Survey data suggest that kestrel declines have been occurring steadily since at least 1966; therefore, specific threats that have arisen in recent decades are unlikely to be the ultimate cause of the decline. Nest cavities also do not seem to be limiting many populations, as evidenced by the low occupancy of many nest box programs. The most parsimonious demographic mechanism of decline seems to be that vital rates have been at constant levels that are too low to maintain populations since at least the late 1960s. But, the large range and complicated biology of the American Kestrel make simple, continent-wide drivers of decline unlikely. Research regarding phenology and migratory connectivity will improve monitoring of American Kestrels and thereby improve our understanding of population declines. Full-annual-cycle, demographic studies of the American Kestrel are also sorely needed, as are studies of breeding success in natural cavities, effects of climate change, and identification of important wintering and migration sites outside of the US.
